Trump’s 2024 Financial Forecast: Key Insights

Former U.S. President Donald Trump
Former U.S. President Donald Trump. Credit | REUTERS

United States – Reuters wanted to approximate the cash flow being generated by Trump’s various enterprises in an effort to capture how that business has evolved over the last ten years and to what degree the more than $500 million in judgments against him may weigh on it.

Reuters had to estimate, based on methods of analysis, industry standards, and opinions from experts in industries, that the Trump Organization would have approximately $80 million in cash after operating costs in 2024 from Trump’s businesses.

Analyzing Real Estate Holdings

In examining Trump’s business interests, particularly real estate – the field through which he achieved his fame – Reuters analyzed each of the properties in which Trump has an interest separately. In income-generating properties such as his office building at 40 Wall Street or the retail spaces in Trump Tower in New York that include BP’s retail units, we used net operating income and rental rate data generated between 2011 and 2021 by Trump Organisation used in the New York fraud case against the group. Reuters also employed information about the group’s mortgages incorporated into commercial mortgage-backed securities and information obtained from property tax appeals.

Reuters adjusted these for other costs like regular capital expenses and leasing costs in consultation with industry standards and history. Reuters also subtracted debt costs since they can be obtained from the Office of Government Ethics (OGE), the candidate’s financial disclosure, state property records, and the information provided during the fraud trial.

Actual net operating income (NOI) data was cross-checked with tax returns and brought to present value using experts’ opinions, taking into consideration the current market situation and vacancies, among other factors. There is an inability to forecast rental fees as well as the population density that the rental units will attract.

Thus, according to the data from Reuters, in 2024, in the rental and sales of commercial space in New York, California, Illinois, Nevada, and Florida, Trump surveyed approximately $ 3 million for free cash flow. It would have been higher given that the company made a repayment of an approximately $12 million that was associated with Trump Plaza in New York in April.

Golf and Resort Properties: A Mixed Outlook

For Trump’s golf and resort properties, listed accounts were used wherever feasible by Reuters, otherwise net operating income figures from the expert appointed by New York Attorney General fraud case. These NOI calculations were, on the whole, not dissimilar from, though often below, income figures in a valuation prepared by an expert for a Trump case. : Such figures were also relatively close to the tax return details provided by the Ways & Means Committee in 2022.

Reuters altered 2021 earnings using the revenue rise at the clubs estimated by the Trump expert. Reuters then compared the submitted revenue projections prepared in 2023 to industry trends and the revenue that Trump stated in his OGE disclosure in August 2024.

Reuters’ projection also does not include significant capital expenditure for capacity enhancements. Reuters did not identify any news articles indicating that new major improvements to his properties would be developed in 2024; however, Trump’s golf business may bring in approximately $70M this year, as estimated by Reuters, and it may be too high.

Trump earns money through the licensing of his name to foreign real estate developers and others and submits such income in his or her OGE financial statements. Reuters expected Trump to get a similar amount from existing deals in 2024 as he did in 2023 —presumably too high –in addition to adding the amounts for each of the two deals he made this year similar to what he received on the previous deals.

Licensing Income and Legal Expenses

According to tax filings by the House Ways & Means Committee in 2022, Reuters gauged $11 million of losses in the Trump Corporation, which serves as a management company for the Donald J. Trump Organization & License.

Reuters left out several millions of dollars for legal expenses in various cases involving Trump on the grounds that most of them are financed by his campaign contributors. Also, Reuters reported that the cost of operating his fleet of aircraft had been cut to a fraction of what it had been before because his campaign hired planes from him.

Reuters also left out any federal income tax payments that existed.